I got an email from a friend of mine the other day saying, "Carl, do you think Hillary will run in 2008?" Now to me, the mere thought of Hillary Clinton being President affects my very soul like the sound fingernails on a chalkboard, but to my friend I replied, "Of course she's going to run! The question is can she win...?"
To that question, I believe there are 2 answers, both hinging on the success of the next four years. Let's say for instance that President Bush has an incredible, next four years (which, based on his policies, I think is very likely to happen). His approval rating goes through the roof, and the Republicans are strong going into the next election cycle. Would it do the Democrats any good to run a candidate that moves the party even farther left than they already are? Four years of a strong, conservative government would be curtains for Hillary, as the Democratic party would have to nominate a more moderate candidate if they wanted to compete. If you look at Democratic candidates that have done well in the last 30 years, you have Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both Southern Democrats. In the event of four good years under Bush, I believe the party will again move in that direction, making someone like the silver-tongued John Edwards an excellent candidate.
Now, on the other hand, let's imagine that the next four years are either ho-hum for Bush, or one step further, a complete disaster. The budget deficits continue to be a problem, and American troops are still involved in foriegn conflicts. This would be a good thing for Hillary in that the Democrats could turn the election into a referendum on conservatism, and get a more liberal candidate into office. But in this scenario, let us not forget about John Kerry. He is exceedingly slick, and I believe he earned the respect of many Americans by conceding this election and not dragging us through another series of needless legal challenges. Hillary would be in a dog-fight for the nomination witk JK under this scenario.
Now, having said all of that, I may by completely and utterly wrong, because I have neglected to take into account one thing; "The Clinton Factor". In the original Star Wars there is a scene where Luke and Obi-wan are riding into Mos Eisley, and Obi-wan uses the force on an unsuspecting Storm Trooper, allowing the group to slip by the gaurds. Obi-wan waves his hand, and the Storm Trooper is completely befuddled. To me, this reminds me of the Clintons. Now, I am not suggesting that the Clintons can use the force, but they do seem to wield some kind of power of the American people, especially liberals. It goes a little something like this:
Reporter: "Mr. Clinton, how is it that 8 of your White Water partners ended up dead or in prison before they could testify against you?"
Bill: (waving his hand at the reporter) You don't need to know about White Water.
Reporter: (To other reporter buddies) We don't need to know about White Water. (Reporters scamper off to write a story about the wonders of the UN)
Keep in mind, that is fictional, and did not actually happen, as far as I can tell. But I think that illustrates the power the Clintons have over the press and the liberals.
Then again, maybe the Clintons have that power because, in truth, they were in power during a very good time in American economic history. Now, I am in no way giving Bill Clinton credit for this. I believe that he inherited an economy on the rise from ol' G.H.W. Bush, and rode it for 8 years. However, I realize that some people don't share my opinion. So maybe the Clinton mystique is no more than nostaglia, like Celtics fans longing for the days of McHale and Bird. Whatever it is, it throws a monkey wrench into my predictions for the 2008 election. Looks like we will all just have to wait and see what happens.
But, that's just my opinion. What do you think?
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3 comments:
Good column, I hope she runs against a Giuliani/Condeleeza Rice or Liddy Dole ticket myself...now do you think when she loses the presidential race we'll finally be rid of the Clintons? We got rid of Hussein, Arafat...come on! It's gotta happen.
You know...the name Clinton is just like a bad penny; it keeps turning up. I wish I could say that a defeat in '08 would be the end of the Clintons, but I just can't bring myself to believe it. Unless there is a drastic shift in the Democratic party, I think we will see the Clintons pulling the strings on liberal politics for a long time to come.
Today, the Clintons are the embodiment of the Democratic party. Bill Clinton resurrected the Democratic party in 1992, and from then on Clinton's policies became the Democratic platform. It's still true today, eventhough Clinton has stepped back from the spotlight for the time being. I mean, compare the Democratic platforms of the '90s to the platform from this past election. There isn't much of a difference.
I was thinking today about a Clinton and Clinton ticket in 2008. I know the Constitution states you can't be President more than twice, but could Bill be VP? I'm unclear on the legality of that situation, but what a nightmare that would be.
To be fair, I have to give you props from the -not conservative- side of the isle (totally ANTI partisan myself) I think the democrats can do better than Hillary OR John in 2008, hope they do and I am certain that Clinton did not create the econmic bubble of the 90's I dont think George Sr. did either and I know from inside that bubble when it burst that nobody in the oval office caused that either. The internet is clearly, much more powerful than the American president, perhaps the only democracy left. No pressure from the FCC or the owner of fox is going to tell either of us what to say, we get to freely disagree as Americans should be able to.
My vote for 2008: How bout someone totally new for whom the job would actually be a raise? wouldn't it be awesome if someone like that could win by a landslide? We could all sleep at night without looking at our neighboor and wondering if they eat lead paint for breakfast.
so who are the republicans going to dig up? Powell? I would actually really like to see that, might even be conflicted as to who to vote for, then again he would get trampled on the WHD issue. oh well.
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